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China’s economic emergence has been the big story in the world economy since the fall of the Soviet Union. While China’s development has brought a lot of good, it has taken an often under-reported toll on the environment.
It’s now becoming popular to say that if China’s not on board in Copenhagen, the rest of the world’s emissions reductions and environmental sustainability pledges will mean nothing.
You’ve probably heard that China is the largest polluter of greenhouse gases (GHGs) at about 7.5 gigatons per year, which makes some sense since 1/5 of the world’s population lives within its borders.
Far less attention is paid to the cancer villages, water shortage, desertification, and polluted air, waterways, and food supply.
China is, however, taking many steps to fight these environmental problems. Over the past two decades the nation’s carbon efficiency has risen by an average of 4.9% per year.
The government’s current 5-year plan aims to reduce energy intensity by 20%. These steps are important since continued economic growth in China will only exacerbate environmental problems, while costing billions in oil and coal imports—commodities whose prices are sure to rise with Chinese demand.
McKinsey’s Take
Global consulting leader McKinsey has taken an in-depth look at this issue, and published a free article with some of its findings. The article lays a framework for what will amount to a green revolution in China.
It’s important to note that China has a far different emissions picture than the US, with a larger share of GHGs coming from the industrial sector. Homes are emitting more as increasing living standards allow for further consumption of heat and electricity.
Transportation still plays only a small role: China has only 4 motor vehicles per 100 people, while that number in the US is 80 per 100.
China’s economy is expected to continue growing at a rate of 7-8% per year. Urbanization should keep pace with economic growth: it’s estimated that 2/3 of 1.5 billion Chinese will live in cities by 2030. 50,000 new high-rises will have to be built to accommodate these city-dwellers, along with 170 new mass transit systems.
How China develops will be critical to its long-term sustainability. Every high-rise or coal-fired power plant built with inefficient, antiquated technology will continue to drain energy and economic growth for decades.
McKinsey presents a plan that would result in China increasing GHG emissions by less than 15% above 2005 levels in 2030, without hampering economic growth. This contrasts with its estimates of a 237% increase if no improvements in carbon efficiency are made, and a 113% increase with China’s current policies and regulations.
McKinsey’s plan relies on increased adoption of technology included in current policies and regulations, plus incorporation of emerging technologies. They’ve divided their recommended changes into 5 categories: Green Power, Green Transport, Green Industry, Green Buildings, and Green Ecosystem.
For full details on the plan see the McKinsey Quarterly article.
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